Even though the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat Jon Tester and Republican newcomer Tim Sheehy may be the most watched statewide race in Montana, the one that appears the closest is the contest for the state’s western Congressional district.
That race, which pits incumbent Rep. Ryan Zinke, a Republican and former Interior Secretary, against Democratic challenger Monica Tranel, is a very close contest according to a poll released on Tuesday.
Internal polling done through the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee shows Tranel and Zinke neck-and-neck after a multi-modal poll taken between Sept. 11 and 13, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3%. Zinke still has a slight lead, 46% to 45%, according to the new DCCC poll. There were 864 likely voters surveyed in the Congressional district.
This is the second time Zinke has met Tranel in the race for Congress. Zinke won the seat with a 49.8% to Tranel’s 46.4%, but fewer than 8,000 votes separated the two in 2022.
With hardly a break, Tranel announced early on that she would fight to take on Zinke and the Republicans again in the House race, and has spent “four years campaigning” she told the Daily Montanan on Tuesday, after the release of polling results. Her campaign hasn’t just been measured in terms of time, but also the number of tires and the new transmission she’s put in a van while she campaigns across the district. She credits her ground game — that is political speak for knocking on doors, attending events and meeting voters — for tightening the polling data.
The polls also give some indication about the voter sentiment. Both candidates score well within their respective political parties, with Zinke and Tranel both having nearly identical positive favorability. However, Zinke is seen as substantially less favorable among independent voters.
According to the poll, there is a 30-point spread between Tranel’s favorability among independent voters and their opinion of Zinke. Even though the DCCC polls suggest that Zinke has higher name recognition at 86%, Tranel has closed some of the gap and now has 75% name recognition. Zinke’s negative favorability rating among independents ranks at a -17%, while Tranel polls with an overall positive image at +13%.
Polling for the First Congressional District suggests that roughly 4% of the voters are still undecided, well within the margin of error, meaning that there still votes in play for both candidates.
Questions for comment sent to the Zinke campaign went unreturned on Tuesday.
Tranel told the Daily Montanan Tuesday that her close election in 2022 left her nearly immediately feeling like there was unfinished work.
“I felt like the investment of time was beginning to pay off,” Tranel said.
So, she revisited those communities where she had campaigned, set up round-table discussions and listening sessions. What she heard crystallized the 2024 campaign: She needed to address housing issues.
“All I’ve heard is housing, housing, housing,” Tranel said.
Even though housing was a problem in 2022, Tranel said, it has become even more urgent as schools can’t afford to pay teachers, nor can police or other professionals earn enough to live in western Montana communities. She points to the shuttering of Pyramid Lumber Company, too. The closed lumber mill said that recruiting workers was simply too hard and stressful before closing.
She told the Daily Montanan that she’s presented a plan to help state and local communities with housing, including making it easier to purchase mobile homes as real property, and fully funding some of the federal tax programs that help get buyers into homes. She also said that some outdated hurdles often keep others, like married couples, from qualifying for federal housing because of two incomes, which may need adjustment when some median Montana properties cost nearly three-quarters of a million dollars.
“It’s time to turn the page and write a new chapter or the next story by solving these problems,” Tranel said. “We don’t need someone who lives in Santa Barbara. We can do so much better.”
Tranel was referring to the California community where Zinke and his wife spent time.
This year she’s also hearing from more Republicans.
“They’re just tired of the chaos. They’re tired of not passing a budget,” Tranel said. “It’s basic governance issues and it’s unacceptable. We want better from Montana and they’ll get it from me.”
Tranel also said that fighting as an attorney against large corporate interests, including repeatedly taking on the state’s largest public utility, has prepared her well for another shot at Congress.
“I grew up in Montana where you voted for the people not the parties. We are all built on relationships and connections in this state,” Tranel said. “I have a fierce sense of justice and I hate greed and corruption.”
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